Myanmar Conflict
What's Happening in Myanmar?
Myanmar, a country in Southeast Asia, has been dealing with internal conflict and shaky politics for decades. In February 2021, the military suddenly stopped a time when things were starting to look more democratic. This threw the country back into crisis and led to lots of people fighting back.
Where is All This Happening?
Myanmar (which used to be called Burma) is in a really important spot between India and China. Its landscape has lots of mountain ranges, mostly running north to south. This means the weather changes a lot depending on where you are, and it gets hit by the Indian monsoon rains. The coast can also get hit hard by terrible cyclones, like Cyclone Nargis in 2008, which killed or left missing over 138,000 people.
This varied landscape is also why there are so many different ethnic groups, religions, and languages in Myanmar. This makes it hard for everyone to feel like one country. The valleys and rivers made it easier for people to move in long ago, especially from areas near China. Today, Myanmar has over 55 million people from more than 135 different ethnic groups that are officially recognized.
There's a pretty clear split between different areas and the people living there:
The Central Plains: This area is along the big Irrawaddy River. It's mostly home to the Bamar people (also called Burmans), who are about 68% of the population. This is where most people live, where the main industries are, and where the big cities are, like the capital Naypyidaw (which took over from Yangon/Rangoon back in 2005).
The Outer/Border Areas: These are mountainous regions where many ethnic minority groups live, like the Shan, Karen, Mon, Kachin, and Chin. A lot of these groups live across the borders with Thailand, China, and India. Even though fewer people live there and they're harder to get to, these areas have lots of valuable natural resources like minerals, gems (like jade), and wood. While most Bamar are Buddhist, in these outer areas, you'll find a mix of Buddhism, Christianity, and local traditional beliefs.
This split between the center and the edges creates three main dividing lines in Myanmar's society:
Ethnic: Between the Bamar majority and the different minority groups.
Religious: Mainly between the Buddhist majority and other groups (like Christians and Muslims, such as the Rohingya).
Economic: Between the more developed central part and the outer areas that have resources but aren't as developed.
How much these divisions mattered has changed over time, depending on who was in charge.
How Did Things Get This Way? (Historical Background)
Before the British (Before c. 1800s): Myanmar didn't have clear borders like we think of them today. Power shifted around, and different local rulers and kingdoms existed side-by-side.
British Rule (1824-1948): After three wars with the British, Britain took over Burma completely and made it part of British India. It got pretty rich selling things like rice and timber. The British used a "divide and conquer" tactic. They mostly kept the Bamar people, who were linked to the old Buddhist kings, out of government jobs and the army. The British directly controlled the main area where the Bamar lived. But in the hilly outer areas, ethnic minorities kept some of their old ways because the British ruled them indirectly, and they often joined the British colonial army units. This made the splits between ethnic groups even worse.
Independence (1948): Led by the national hero Aung San (Aung San Suu Kyi's father), the country became independent in 1948 after talks with the British. An important moment was the Panglong Agreement in 1947, where Aung San got leaders from the Shan, Kachin, and Chin groups to agree to join Burma. They were promised some self-rule, but many ethnic groups feel this promise wasn't kept. After independence, the Bamar majority started getting more power again, especially in the army (called the Tatmadaw) and the government.
Early Independence & Problems (1950s): The Prime Minister, U Nu, tried to make Buddhism the official religion. This upset non-Buddhist groups who wanted more self-control, as they felt they'd been promised. Armed groups started fighting back in some ethnic areas.
Military Takeover & Isolation (1962): Saying the country was supposedly about to break apart because of ethnic demands, the Tatmadaw army, led by General Ne Win, took over in a coup in 1962. Ne Win set up a strict socialist government run by one party. A policy called "Burmanisation" tried to create unity by centralizing power and making everyone use the Burmese language. The government took over businesses and cut off the country from the world, which caused the economy to tank. Fights between ethnic groups got worse.
Uprising & Slow Changes (1988 onwards): In 1988, after crushing a huge country-wide protest for democracy, Ne Win stepped down. The military stayed in charge but started slowly opening up the economy and loosening some rules. They also changed the country's name to Myanmar in 1989.
More Opening & Military Power (1990s-2008): Myanmar joined the Southeast Asian group ASEAN in 1997. Foreign companies were encouraged to invest, especially to get resources like oil and minerals, often working with companies linked to the military. In 2008, the military forced through a new constitution that was basically made to keep them in power forever. It gives the military 25% of the seats in parliament (so they can block any changes they don't like) and puts them in charge of important government departments (like Defense, Police, and Border Areas). This constitution also blocked the kind of system with more regional power that ethnic minorities wanted.
A Step Towards Democracy (2010-2020): In 2010, the military held elections (though many questioned how fair they were) and handed power over to a government that looked civilian but still had strong military ties, led by ex-general Thein Sein. Things started to change: political prisoners, including Aung San Suu Kyi, were let go; unions were allowed; the media wasn't controlled as tightly; and agreements to stop fighting were signed with several armed ethnic groups (EAOs).
Aung San Suu Kyi's Government (2015-2021): Aung San Suu Kyi's party, the NLD, won big in the 2015 elections. Because the constitution stopped her from becoming president, she took a special job called State Counsellor and basically ran the government. More changes tried to tackle corruption and improve schools and healthcare. Talks for peace with the ethnic armed groups went on, but slowly.
Big Problems Remained: Even with these changes, the military stayed very powerful, like its own separate state, involved in politics and business, and often involved in corruption. The 2008 constitution was the biggest roadblock to becoming truly democratic and solving the long-standing fights with ethnic groups.
What's Happening Now? (Ongoing Crisis)
The Rohingya Crisis (2016-Now): Starting in late 2016 and getting much worse in August 2017, the military started brutal attacks called "clearance operations" against the Rohingya Muslim people in Rakhine State. The military said they were responding to attacks by Rohingya fighters (ARSA). But the attacks involved massive and planned violence, like killings, rape, and burning villages. The UN called it a "textbook example of ethnic cleansing" and possibly genocide. More than 750,000 Rohingya ran to nearby Bangladesh to escape the violence. They mostly don't have citizenship anywhere and are stuck there. Aung San Suu Kyi's government was criticized internationally for trying to make the violence seem less bad and defending the military.
2020 Election & 2021 Coup: Even with these problems, the NLD party won big again in the November 2020 elections (getting 82% of the vote). But the military claimed there was huge cheating in the vote (though independent watchers mostly said this wasn't true). On February 1, 2021, the military used these claims as an excuse to take over in a coup, arresting Aung San Suu Kyi and other leaders. This suddenly ended the attempt at democracy.
Protests & Crackdown: The coup quickly led to huge peaceful protests all over the country. A big part of this was the Civil Disobedience Movement (CDM), where lots of government workers, doctors, teachers, and others went on strike. The military government, led by General Min Aung Hlaing, reacted with extreme violence, killing, arresting, and torturing protesters and anyone opposing them.
Fighting Back: Because the military was so brutal, an underground government, the National Unity Government (NUG), was set up by the lawmakers who'd been kicked out, along with ethnic leaders. The NUG said they were fighting back defensively and teamed up with long-standing Ethnic Armed Organizations (EAOs) and new local resistance groups called People's Defence Forces (PDFs). Since then, fighting has gotten worse and spread across the country, making it hard for the military to keep control in many places.
Who Cares About What Happens? (International Interests)
Myanmar's important location, resources, and internal problems mean many other countries are interested in its stability and politics. Since the 2021 coup, different countries have tried to affect what happens:
Actors | Interests |
|---|---|
ASEAN (Southeast Asian Nations) | This group of 10 countries in the region usually stays out of other members' business. But they did something unusual in October 2021 – they didn't let Myanmar's military leader come to their big meeting because no progress was made on a 5-point plan they'd agreed on to stop the violence. Still, ASEAN countries don't all agree on the best way to deal with the crisis. |
Western Countries & Friends (USA, UK, EU, Australia, Canada, South Korea, Japan) | These countries strongly criticized the coup and the violence that followed. They've put sanctions specifically on military leaders and companies the military runs. Japan, which has invested a lot of money in Myanmar, also criticized the coup but still talks to them sometimes. The US government says it supports the democracy movement but hasn't done much directly besides sanctions and sending aid. |
China and Russia | These two big countries protect the military government from strong criticism at the UN Security Council, stopping efforts to take tougher action like banning weapon sales. |
Russia | Has become an important seller of weapons to Myanmar's military and wants stronger economic links. |
China | Has a long border with Myanmar and big economic interests there, like mines, oil and gas pipelines, and dams. Myanmar is a key part of China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) – a huge worldwide project to build roads, ports, etc., connecting China with other regions to boost trade and China's influence. Myanmar gives China an important route to the Indian Ocean. China talks to the military government, but mainly cares about stability for its investments and border security, not so much about what kind of government is in charge. |
India | Also shares a border and is competing with China for influence. India talks with the military government but also says it's worried about the violence and wants democracy back. It has sent aid, like COVID-19 vaccines (China did too), trying to keep connections and work together on security, especially about rebel groups near their border. |
Conclusion:
Myanmar is stuck in a complicated internal fight. On one side is the military trying to hold onto power, and on the other side is a large group demanding democracy, more power for ethnic regions, and human rights. The country is also where the interests of big global powers meet, especially China wanting stability for its projects and Western countries pushing for democracy to return. With the fighting getting worse and a major humanitarian crisis growing, nobody knows for sure what will happen to Myanmar's future.
